Collective Intelligence!
Snippets: Topping is a process and happens over time … generally a top is not due to an event. A shout-out to another day of lower highs and lower lows. So, is it too early to raise our glasses and toast …. as the previously endless deCantor runneth empty?
The following is with attribution to JPM: The World Bank cuts its 2014 global growth forecasts to 2.8% from 3.2%. needs to do more to strengthen their economies. The World Bank now expects the US economy to expand just 2.1 per cent this year – down from a January forecast of 2.8 per cent – while the developing world’s growth rate will stagnate at 4.8 per cent, compared to a previous forecast for 5.3 per cent growth this year. They keep their global growth forecast for next year and 2016 unchanged at 3.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. Cyprus looks set to become the latest peripheral eurozone country to return to global debt markets The FT writes the state has hired five banks to set up meetings with possible investors in a new sovereign bond.
US equity update: Overall there isn’t much to say about stocks. The price action WTD so far is impressive given the recent rally and it still feels like a lot of people are waiting (hoping?) for a better entry point (which probably means one won’t materialize in the near-term). The calendar remains very quiet – increasingly it looks like the catalyst landscape will stay barren possibly until the end of the summer (FOMC meeting June 18, flash PMIs June 23, Abe’s 3rd arrow June 27, Eurozone inflation June 30, and Q2 earnings Jul 8 may change the present narrative but most likely won’t. The Jackson Hole conf. in late Aug, at which the Fed may provide further “exit strategy” details, is likely the next major event).
Pre-market commentary by william_blount: good morning – today is series s3H and the SPILL IS DOWN. Yesterday’s very slow market provided 2 MIXED clues for going forward: 1) The BEARS failed to take out Friday’s range on the downside leaving a potentially WIZARD HAT down move AKIMBO. 2) The BULLS failed to tag 1951.25, the price needed and given in real time for the BEARS to have dropped the soap. The combination of these 2 TELLS DAY 1 OF EXPIRY front and center within the context of an S3H day. DAY 1 almost always features a TRENDING MOVEMENT. From the s3H perspective the most important feature will be the price relationship between the a.m. high and the lunch high. IF YOU LOOK AT THE WIZARD HAT chart from Monday and the 5 min SPX chart THEN think about the WEEKLY PIVOT at 1837.4. MUCH OF THIS WEEKS ANALYSIS AND THE ANALYSIS FROM LATE LAST WEEK should readily come into focus.
Today started with 198k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1940.00 – 1951.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1950.80 – 1943.50 before settling at 1950.50, up .3 handles. Chicagostock ES globex below cash 194175 lows. Cash open below sets up a small island top. Pivots http://bit.ly/1odXR2u
Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 8 handles lower to 1943.00 – 1942.50 first 15 min ES… 1942.00a – 1944.50b and tops out at 1945.00 retesting / holding the OR but could not extend the early high and faded.Chicagostock (09:17) ES upper vol window coincides with intraday & 3 day pivots. Today is first time in weeks ES opened below its 3 day pivot. Could be another bear trap for fuel into a higher high, for now, keeping a lid. william_blount (09:18) OPENING 1943 = control of clock and price right now – you know like yesterdays 1943.30 and Fridays 1942.20 LOWS.
Although the bears huffed and puffed … After holding 1945 area the index extended the RTH’s lows to 1940.80 – holding the Globex low and retested the OR from underneath this time. Steven (09:43) same pattern as yest, not breaking overnight support. Derrick (09:52) [spx] bears dropping hammers stephen_c hibernating … stockmarketwhisperer (10:01) IF the 8:30 PST & onward change goes to its ‘acceleration’ nature… look out below….The week combo is a flush out culminating to the end of Friday’s full moon. Theme of this retrograde is mysterious/unexpected occurrences’.. Have to say Cantor losing primary would qualify as that! … and still defying gravity … by 11:00 the index was retesting the morning high. From Chicagostockabove … could be another bear trap for fuel into a higher high, for now, keeping a lid. Following the quiet midday sideways to higher price action, the futures held a noon retest of the 1945 area before fading back to the all too familiar OR before fading again.
@FuturesTNT morning update http://bit.ly/1lnFuEN
@PivotBoss Midday Vid http://youtu.be/7_IRPDh1i30 ADR Targets http://bit.ly/1quOTuT
Well, the giddy-up was missing, but the bears did continue to claw their way lower, printing a new weekly low of 1839.00. The bulls responded by quietly pushing back up to and then through the midday low, but fumbled the opportunity by holding the OR. Going into the ole hour of power … **Derrick please report bear sightings to park ranger … The MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter started out a small sell before flipping to a modest buy $160M while the S&P index was back to retesting the OR at 2:28- then $207M – Derrick (14:30) aggr buyers in [NDX] took the S&P up to … you guessed it – to retest the morning high of day as the MiM faded back to $115M going into the cash close. The futures also faded back to – I think I heard somebody from the back row – that’s right, bounce back up from that familiar OR. The futures traded 1943.00 area on the cash close before settling at 1943.90, down 6.6 handles on volume of 1.3M e-minis, while the [VIX] was up .61 ticks.
Eco calendars: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
Posted yesterday: Cyrus … In one corner, we have Pitbull’s Thurs/Fri before OpEx week low … and in the opposite corner, Pitbull’s mid-month bulge … wondering what a survey would say … william_blount… so ya rally 89 fibbo handles with 2 days of divergence hoaxes forming a triangle 6/2-6/3, AND THE BEARS can’t break this 13 or 21 handles – SHEEEESH … you hit the bottom of the fattest FIBBO band since 1884 -1909 and all you get is 11 handles down. TOMORROW IS DAY 1 OF EXPIRY, we have been stuck since the OPENING BAR on 15 min chart since FRIDAY, DAY 1 OF EXPIRY ALMOST ALWAYS FEATURES A TRENDING MOVE. Tomorrow is a CIT day for many TIME players. TIME is a strd dev., vol a clue, PRICE is your ARSE – we rejected the bottom of a long standing projection YESTERDAY, 1954-1968 within MOE (margin of error) at 1955.55. Tomorrow the most important time WITH PRICE FEATURE will be the relationship between the LUNCH HIGH AND THE A.M. HIGH.
stockmarketwhisperer …most bearish action/aspects are later in the week … thurs/friday. U.S. stocks open soft following yet another all-time closing record high yesterday … however, as discussed above – this is not what many traders are hoping for as far as a minor pullback/correction goes. We just want cheaper prices – to suck us in ….
@Chicagostock … SP500 Completes 1955 Objective http://bit.ly/1n3RcTl
Posted since last Wednesday: E-mini 30 more handles to complete 1956 upside fib extension of 76.4%and 1844-1732 range expansion. No pullback until objective complete, breaks turning into bear traps to fuel squeeze - Chicagostock. *Take a look below for a possible match – we likey matches!
Posted since a week ago Monday: Posted by William Blount: IF WE CONTINUE TO GRIND AROUND 1929-32.86 CASH and 1912.5 SPOO through Wednesday then I will suggest my 4th option trade over the last 6 months – all are / have been straddles. for those who read the pre-market commentary and see the straddle strategy – what 2 prices am I looking at to tag ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER on SPOO FUTURES OR CASH b4 next friday? Carina- WB the time frame on the straddle is this Friday? NO, NEXT FRIDAY – you have a TWO EVENT CATALYST WINDOW this week. Answer: 1954 cash or 1887 futures by SC – check out Chicagostock above – Emini 30 handles ….
@Chicagostock Vol windows & Pivots webinar. Sharing the 6 month volatility and pivot levels webinar http://bit.ly/TB7UAW
The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.
Posted-In: Futures Markets
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